New condominium prices have surged by 30–40% year-on-year, threatening market sustainability and raising concerns about a potential housing bubble, according to CBRE.

Since the beginning of this year, apartment prices in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City have continued to rise in both the primary and resale markets, putting further pressure on the affordability of end-users.

In its latest market report, real estate services firm CBRE noted that new condominium projects priced above 100 million VND per square meter have become increasingly common in both major cities.

In Hanoi, total new supply reached over 10,300 units, of which 20% were priced above 120 million VND per square meter (excluding VAT and maintenance fees). This marks a record-high quarter for the number of newly launched units priced above 100 million VND per square meter.

The continuous launch of high-end projects pushed primary asking prices up by an average of 16% quarter-on-quarter and 41% year-on-year. In the resale market, secondary apartment prices also increased by 19% year-on-year, averaging 58 million VND per square meter. Although this growth is slower than in the same period of 2024, it still surpassed the levels seen in the first two quarters of this year.

Similarly, in Ho Chi Minh City, approximately 2,550 new units were launched in the third quarter, mostly in the high-end segment, with prices ranging from 60 to 120 million VND per square meter.

New projects in central areas averaged 120–150 million VND per square meter, with some even exceeding 230 million VND per square meter. Compared with last year, new apartment prices in the city have increased by about 31%.

Mr. Võ Huỳnh Tuấn Kiệt, Director of CBRE Vietnam’s Residential Sales Department in Ho Chi Minh City, commented that with current price levels, end-users “almost have no opportunity to access the market.” Instead, most transactions now come from investors and speculators.
“When genuine homebuyers are priced out, capital only circulates among investors, which easily leads to the formation of a price bubble,” he said.

Real estate in eastern Ho Chi Minh City

Mr. Kiệt also warned that the rapid rise in prices while absorption rates decline is a signal that needs attention. For instance, in Ho Chi Minh City, according to CBRE’s data, persistently high selling prices have slowed the absorption rate to about 68%, down from 90% in the previous quarter. He emphasized that a healthy real estate market must maintain a balance between selling prices, income, and absorption capacity.

This trend has also been recorded by other research institutions. One Mount Group — backed by Techcombank and Masterise — reported that Hanoi’s apartment prices continued to increase, with a clear segmentation gap.

The average price reached 85.6 million VND per square meter, up 23% year-on-year. The price structure shows that apartments priced above 100 million VND per square meter accounted for more than half of new supply, while those priced below 50 million VND per square meter were almost absent.

The company also reported that in the past quarter, Ho Chi Minh City (before its merger) recorded more than 2,200 newly launched units with an average selling price of over 95 million VND per square meter, up 21% compared to the same period last year.

Meanwhile, the average income growth of workers in the first nine months of this year was only around 10% year-on-year, averaging 8.3 million VND per month.

In urban areas, the average income was 10 million VND per month, but the urban youth unemployment rate remained above 10%, according to the General Statistics Office under the Ministry of Finance.

Mr. Trần Minh Tiến, Director of OneHousing Market Research Center, said that based on the company’s calculations, a middle-income household (earning 200 million–1.3 billion VND per year) would need about 9–10 years of work to afford a standard 70 m² apartment (priced around 85–95 million VND per square meter).

Lower-income households (earning under 200 million VND per year) almost “have no access to commercial housing,” as they would need more than 35 years of savings to afford one.
“This demonstrates that the gap between income and housing prices is widening, posing a major challenge to housing affordability in major urban areas like Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City,” Mr. Tiến said.

According to a recent survey by VnExpress with more than 7,400 respondents, more than half said they do not plan to buy an apartment in the second half of the year due to high prices. 65% said they could only afford apartments priced under 3 billion VND.

In light of this situation, during the meeting on October 11, Prime Minister Phạm Minh Chính emphasized the need to build reasonable tax policies to prevent speculation, price inflation, and housing offers exceeding the market average.
He also directed regulators to tighten control over capital flows into speculative segments to avoid profiteering and market manipulation.