Real Estate Market 2026: A New Screening Cycle and Increasing Market Divergence After a period of strong real estate price increases in many areas, particularly in the apartment segment, the market enters 2026 amid multiple new influencing factors simultaneously emerging, ranging from legal policy changes and capital flows to shifts in supply structure. These developments are expected to reshape market dynamics while increasing divergence across segments, regions, and groups of developers. One notable breakthrough is the pilot mechanism allowing the development of commercial housing projects without the requirement of having 100% residential land. This regulation has legitimized many mixed-use land funds, enabling numerous stalled projects to complete legal procedures and resume development, particularly in major urban areas. At the same time, local authorities have accelerated the completion of urban planning frameworks. A prominent example is the Hanoi Capital Planning for the 2021–2030 period, which has created an important legal basis for resolving long-delayed projects and unlocking land resources for a new development cycle. According to Vietcombank Securities Company Limited (VCBS), one of the key factors supporting market recovery in 2025 was the significant improvement in access to capital. Outstanding credit in the real estate and construction sectors reached approximately VND 2.94 quadrillion, up nearly 18%, with credit for real estate developers increasing by nearly 40%. The corporate bond market also regained momentum as market confidence gradually recovered, providing additional financial resources for developers to restart projects. Entering 2026, however, the credit environment is expected to become less favorable. Policies aimed at controlling the proportion of real estate lending in order to mitigate bad debt risks, together with a slight upward trend in interest rates, will increase capital costs and force developers to be more selective in project development. In particular, proposals to tighten credit for second-home purchases may reduce investment demand, gradually shifting the market toward one driven more by genuine housing demand. Experts from VCBS also noted that a clear signal of the recovery cycle is the strong increase in state budget revenues from land. This growth reflects that many projects have fulfilled financial obligations and entered the construction and large-scale sales phases. Consequently, real estate supply during the 2026–2027 period is expected to increase significantly in major urban areas. Forecasts indicate that the supply of mid-range apartments will expand considerably in Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh City, and surrounding areas, creating substantial competitive pressure as developers accelerate sales in order to maintain cash flow. VCBS believes that the strong price surge in the Northern market, particularly in the condominium segment, was mainly caused by supply–demand imbalance. Affordable housing supply has remained scarce while genuine housing demand continues to stay high. Rising land, construction, and financing costs have also forced developers to increase selling prices to ensure project profitability. However, the rapid price escalation has significantly reduced housing affordability. The price-to-income ratio in Hanoi increased sharply from 19.6 years in 2024 to 31.1 years in 2026, indicating increasing financial pressure on homebuyers. As a result, the pace of price growth has begun to slow, liquidity has become more selective, and the market is entering a consolidation phase rather than continuing the previous overheating trend. In the land plot and low-rise housing segments, the trend of “rising prices – declining transactions” has become increasingly evident. Asking prices continue to rise while liquidity remains weak, reflecting investors’ cautious sentiment in the context of high price levels. While the Northern market is gradually reaching the peak of its price cycle, investment capital is showing signs of shifting toward the Southern region, where price levels remain more affordable and growth potential is greater. Legal procedures in the Southern region have improved significantly, with faster project approvals thanks to new pilot mechanisms. Ho Chi Minh City continues to play a central role in supply; however, new projects are still mainly concentrated in the high-end segment in order to optimize profit margins, meaning that the supply–demand mismatch has not yet been fully resolved. Notably, the spillover effect is expanding to Binh Duong, Dong Nai, and Long An, supported by improved transport infrastructure and relatively reasonable price levels. After many years of stagnation, these markets are beginning to record signs of liquidity recovery. The social housing segment has shown positive progress. In 2025, more than 102,600 units were completed nationwide, while nearly 700 projects are currently under development, equivalent to approximately 62% of the target set for the 2021–2030 period. This momentum stems from regulations requiring 20% of land funds in commercial projects to be allocated for social housing, along with newly introduced reform mechanisms. However, actual implementation remains slow due to complex investor selection procedures, a shortage of cleared land, and financial returns that are not yet sufficiently attractive for developers. In addition, issues such as brokerage profiteering and unsuitable income eligibility conditions also limit access for those with genuine housing demand. The VCBS report also indicates that 2026 will no longer be a period of broad-based recovery but rather a phase of clear differentiation among markets, segments, and enterprises. Selling prices in the Northern region are expected to remain stable, while prices in the Southern region may increase slightly due to capital inflows. Market liquidity will concentrate on projects with complete legal documentation, clear construction progress, and connectivity to key transport infrastructure. “Higher interest rates combined with increased financial pressure will curb speculative activities, leading the market toward a more sustainable development model driven by genuine housing demand rather than short-term price appreciation expectations,” VCBS experts commented. According to research data from the Vietnam Association of Realtors (VARS), the market recorded approximately 128,000 newly launched products in 2025, the highest level since 2019 and close to the peak supply threshold. This development indicates that the market is gradually shifting toward a development model based more on real supply–demand balance as well as the financial capacity of participating stakeholders. In the context where real estate prices, especially in major urban areas, have significantly exceeded average income levels, while capital costs and borrowing interest rates continue to exert pressure, the number of market participants is expected to narrow. End-users are required to prepare stable financial foundations along with long-term accumulation plans. At the same time, investors can no longer easily achieve high returns as before but must adopt more selective strategies, focusing on practical utility value, cash flow generation capacity, liquidity, and risk management. Cases that rely excessively on financial leverage without a long-term strategy will gradually be eliminated. Ms. Giang Huynh, Director of Research and Consultancy at Savills Ho Chi Minh City, stated that Vietnam’s real estate market is currently undergoing an adjustment phase with restructuring characteristics, laying the foundation for a new and more sustainable development cycle. From 2026 onward, the market will operate under a new legal framework with the simultaneous implementation of the 2024 Land Law, the 2023 Housing Law, the Law on Real Estate Business, and a new land price framework effective from January 1, 2026. Although the new land price framework may increase financial obligations for businesses and residents in the short term, in the long run it is expected to enhance transparency and fairness in the investment environment while also resolving long-standing issues related to project land price determination — a factor that previously disrupted market supply. In reality, a new real estate cycle is taking shape, characterized by strong market screening. Companies possessing clean land banks, complete legal documentation, and strong financial capacity will have clear advantages, while developers heavily reliant on financial leverage may face significant pressure. After alternating periods of overheating and stagnation, the real estate market in 2026 is expected to move toward a more balanced state: improved supply, reduced speculation, and capital flows directed toward real value. This is no longer a period of “easy quick wins,” but rather a stage that requires long-term strategies, transparency, and strong adaptability from both developers and investors. 中文翻译 2026年房地产市场:新一轮筛选周期与分化趋势日益明显 在多个地区房地产价格经历快速上涨,尤其是公寓市场之后,房地产市场在进入2026年时,正面临多重新因素的同时影响,包括法律政策变化、资金流动以及供应结构调整等。这些变化预计将重新塑造市场走势,同时也将进一步加剧不同细分市场、区域以及房地产企业之间的分化。 一个值得关注的重要突破是:试点允许商业住宅开发项目不再必须拥有100%住宅用地。这一政策使大量混合用途土地得以合法化,帮助许多长期停滞的项目完成法律手续并重新启动,尤其是在各大城市。 与此同时,各地也在加快完善城市规划,例如《2021—2030年河内首都规划》,为解决长期停滞项目提供了重要法律依据,并释放土地资源,为新一轮发展周期提供支撑。 根据 越南外贸股份商业银行证券公司(VCBS) 的研究报告,推动2025年房地产市场复苏的重要因素之一是融资环境明显改善。房地产及建筑领域贷款余额约达 294万亿越南盾,同比增长近18%;其中房地产开发企业贷款增长接近40%。与此同时,随着市场信心逐步恢复,企业债券市场也重新活跃,为开发商重启项目提供了新的资金来源。 进入2026年,信贷环境预计将趋于收紧。为控制不良贷款风险,监管政策可能限制房地产贷款比例,同时利率也呈现小幅上升趋势,这将提高企业融资成本,并迫使开发商在项目选择上更加谨慎。尤其是针对第二套住房贷款的收紧政策,可能削弱投资需求,使市场逐渐转向以真实居住需求为主导。 VCBS专家指出,房地产复苏周期的一个明显信号是 土地相关财政收入显著增长。这意味着许多项目已经完成土地财政义务,并进入大规模建设与销售阶段。因此,预计 2026—2027年 大城市房地产供应将明显增加。 根据预测,中端公寓供应将在 河内、胡志明市及周边地区 大幅增加,开发商为了加快资金回笼,将加速销售,从而加剧市场竞争。 VCBS认为,北方市场特别是公寓价格大幅上涨,主要原因在于供需失衡:可负担住房供应依然不足,而真实住房需求保持高位。同时,土地成本、建设成本以及融资成本不断上升,也迫使开发商提高销售价格以确保项目收益。然而,房价上涨过快已经明显削弱居民的支付能力。河内 房价收入比 从 2024年的19.6年 上升到 2026年的31.1年,表明购房者的财务压力日益增加。因此,房价上涨速度开始放缓,市场成交趋于选择性,市场进入 整固阶段,而不再像此前那样快速上涨。 在 土地地块和低层住宅 市场,“价格上涨—成交下降”的趋势也越来越明显。挂牌价格上涨,但成交量低迷,反映出投资者在高价格背景下更加谨慎。 随着北方市场逐渐接近价格周期高点,投资资金开始向 南方市场 转移,因为当地房价仍相对较低,增长空间更大。与此同时,南方地区房地产项目的法律审批进度明显改善,在试点政策推动下,项目审批速度加快。 胡志明市 仍然是供应核心,但新项目主要集中在高端住宅领域,以提高利润率,供需错配问题仍未得到彻底解决。 值得注意的是,随着交通基础设施不断改善以及价格相对合理,市场溢出效应正在扩展至 平阳、同奈和隆安。经过多年低迷,这些市场开始出现成交回暖迹象。 保障性住房(社会住房) 市场也出现积极变化。2025年,全国共完成 102,600多套住房,同时约 700个项目 正在建设中,相当于完成了 2021—2030年目标的62%。推动这一进展的动力来自商业项目必须预留 20%土地用于社会住房 的规定,以及新的改革机制。然而,由于投资者选择程序复杂、缺乏净地以及项目收益率不足等原因,实际推进仍然较慢。此外,中介牟利以及收入条件限制等问题,也影响了真正有需求人群的购房机会。 VCBS报告指出,2026年不再是全面复苏阶段,而是市场分化加剧的时期。 预计 北方市场房价将保持稳定,而 南方市场房价可能小幅上涨,主要受到资金流入的推动。市场成交将集中在 法律手续完整、建设进度明确并与重要交通基础设施相连接的项目。 VCBS专家表示:“利率上升以及财务压力增加将限制投机行为,使房地产市场逐步转向更加可持续的发展模式,更多依赖真实住房需求,而不是短期价格上涨预期。” 根据 越南房地产经纪人协会(VARS) 的研究数据,2025年市场共推出约 12.8万套新产品,为 2019年以来最高水平,接近历史供应高点。这表明房地产市场正在逐步向 基于真实供需平衡和市场参与者财务能力 的发展模式转变。 在房地产价格,尤其是大城市房价,已经远高于居民平均收入水平,同时融资成本与贷款利率仍然带来较大压力的情况下,市场参与者范围正在缩小。刚需购房者必须具备稳定的财务基础和长期积累计划。同时,投资者也难以像过去那样轻松获得高回报,而需要采取更加谨慎的策略,更加重视 实际使用价值、现金流能力、流动性以及风险控制。那些过度依赖金融杠杆而缺乏长期战略的投资者,将逐渐被市场淘汰。 世邦魏理仕(Savills)胡志明市研究与咨询部总监江女士(Giang Huynh) 表示,越南房地产市场正处于一个 结构性调整阶段,为下一轮更加稳健的发展周期奠定基础。 从 2026年起,房地产市场将在新的法律框架下运行,包括 2024年《土地法》、2023年《住房法》、 《房地产经营法》 以及 2026年1月1日起实施的新土地价格体系。 虽然新的土地价格体系在短期内可能增加企业和居民的财务负担,但从长期来看,该政策有望提升投资环境的 透明度与公平性,同时解决长期困扰市场的 项目土地定价问题,这一问题曾一度导致市场供应受阻。 事实上,一个新的房地产周期正在形成,其核心特征是 市场强烈的优胜劣汰机制。拥有 净地储备、完善法律手续以及稳健财务能力 的企业将拥有明显优势,而依赖高杠杆的开发商则可能面临巨大压力。 在经历了房地产市场的快速上涨与低迷交替之后,2026年市场有望进入更加平衡的发展阶段:供应改善、投机降温、资金回归真实价值。这不再是一个“轻松快速获利”的阶段,而是一个需要 长期战略、透明度以及高度适应能力 的新时期,无论是企业还是投资者都必须做出相应调整。