Amid ongoing global economic volatility, Vietnam’s real estate market is entering a phase of strong restructuring, with capital flows clearly shifting toward assets with intrinsic value and long-term sustainability.

According to experts, the market is moving into a new cycle where capital is no longer “easy” but is being more carefully filtered, targeting products with clear legal foundations and long-term potential.

Interest Rate Pressure and the Market “Pincer Grip”

Experts note that the global market is being impacted by geopolitical instability, particularly conflicts in the Middle East, leading to supply chain disruptions and volatility in energy prices as well as financial assets.

Assoc. Prof. Dr. Tran Dinh Thien – former Director of the Vietnam Institute of Economics and member of the Prime Minister’s Advisory Council – emphasized that although Vietnam maintains a stable macroeconomic foundation with strong growth and controlled inflation, interest rate pressure remains a key concern.

According to him, just a 1% increase in interest rates could raise total borrowing costs of the entire economy by approximately VND 184 trillion per year, with the real estate sector alone increasing by around VND 47 trillion. This creates significant pressure on both enterprises and investors.

He described the current market as being caught in a “pincer grip”: on one side is rising capital costs, and on the other is the shifting supply-demand structure. However, this is also a necessary phase for the market to eliminate speculative elements and move toward real value.

Given the high openness of the economy, Vietnam is also significantly affected by these fluctuations. Interest rates have increased since Q4 2025 and remain at relatively high levels. Mortgage rates are commonly around 9.6–10% per annum during the preferential period and may rise to 13–15% per annum afterward.

In this context, capital flows are shifting from widespread allocation to selective investment. Investors are prioritizing assets with intrinsic value, strong value retention, and long-term sustainability.

Sharing the same view, Dr. Nguyen Van Dinh – Vice Chairman of the Vietnam Real Estate Association – stated that the era of “easy and cheap” capital has ended, forcing the market to adapt to a new, more transparent and sustainable development cycle.

Dr. Nguyen Van Dinh assessed that the overall “health” of the market remains positive thanks to the momentum from public investment in the 2024–2025 period. However, several internal bottlenecks persist. Supply-demand imbalance, mismatch between investment demand and end-user demand, along with institutional barriers, have prevented capital from being utilized efficiently. He warned that if not addressed promptly, the market could face localized crises.

Large Capital Flows Are “Reshaping the Game”

According to Tran Dinh Thien, the market currently has two parallel capital flows, in which the existing capital flow is of a very large scale and is playing a key role in reshaping the entire real estate landscape.

He noted that although interest rates and credit conditions are creating short-term “headwinds,” these are temporary factors. What matters more is that investors should focus on long-term economic trends and the “pulse” of national capital flows to identify asset value.

“Opportunities do not lie in short-term fluctuations, but in the ability to look ahead and correctly position value within a new development cycle,” he emphasized.

Mr. Pham Lam – Founder, Chairman and CEO of DKRA Group – stated that despite current challenges, this is an appropriate time to reposition investment strategies.

According to him, the ongoing market filtering process is opening up development opportunities for projects with transparent legal status, strong financial foundations, and good liquidity. This is also a time when the market “selects” investors, favoring those with knowledge, vision, and long-term strategies.

From different perspectives, experts agree that the market is entering a “noise-filtering” phase, where speculative factors are gradually being eliminated.