In 2026, the real estate market is forecast to enter a phase of more stable and selective growth. This will not be an overheated growth cycle; rather, it will be a period in which capital flows return with greater caution, prioritizing capital preservation, operational efficiency, and long-term sustainability.

Vietnam’s real estate market is standing before an opportunity to enter a new growth cycle, supported by a solid legal foundation established in 2025. Experts believe that 2026 will witness steadier and more sustainable growth, with a stronger focus on real demand, although certain risks will still need to be closely monitored.

Assessing the 2026 real estate market, Deputy Minister of Construction Nguyễn Văn Sinh stated: “2025 is a year that lays an important foundation for the real estate market to enter a new growth cycle starting in 2026. However, limitations remain, such as a shortage of affordable housing, property prices that are high relative to income levels, and a market information system that is not yet fully synchronized.”

From another perspective, Nguyễn Văn Đính, Chairman of the Vietnam Association of Realtors, also noted: “Entering 2026, the real estate market faces many opportunities as double-digit economic growth targets are set, capital flows continue to be maintained through flexible monetary policies, and new urban development models such as compact cities and transit-oriented development (TOD) are prioritized. However, there will no longer be room for short-term speculative investment. The next phase requires market participants to be more professional, more transparent, and to strictly comply with market discipline within an ecosystem governed by data and digital technology.”

Businesses and experts also share a positive yet cautious outlook for 2026. Nguyễn Hoài An, Senior Director of CBRE Hanoi Branch, assessed that 2026 is expected to be the year Vietnam’s real estate market enters a new, more stable and highly selective cycle, with active participation from developers and investors with long-term vision, as well as end-users with genuine housing needs.

According to Ms. An, supply will remain abundant and diversified across segments and geographical locations. However, improved supply will intensify competition among developers to attract buyers and tenants, forcing companies to restructure products, enhance product quality, sales policies, and operational strategies. At the same time, project development costs are rising significantly, putting additional pressure on profit margins and investment efficiency.

The Senior Director of CBRE Hanoi Branch also noted that strong supply not only in Hanoi but also in surrounding provinces could lead to the risk of oversupply if demand does not increase accordingly, resulting in inventory risks and downward price pressure in certain segments. In addition, new supply continues to be concentrated in the mid-to-high-end and luxury segments, further increasing difficulties for young buyers and lower-than-average income groups in accessing housing.

Against the backdrop of abundant supply and ongoing macroeconomic volatility, buyer and investor sentiment has become more resilient yet more cautious, with a preference for products that offer price appreciation potential, clear legal status, and stable cash flows.

From the business perspective, concerns over oversupply and interest rate fluctuations are the two biggest challenges. According to Nguyễn Quốc Hiệp, Chairman of the Board of Directors and Chief Executive Officer of GP.Invest, the 2026 real estate market will be fiercely competitive. From 2025 onward, numerous projects have been prepared for launch, and by 2026, the volume of products released to the market will be very large.

Furthermore, the 2026 real estate market faces two major risk factors. First, land prices remain highly opaque, potentially pushing property prices higher. Second, and more critically, there is the risk of bank interest rates rising too sharply.

“Both homebuyers and sellers rely on credit. Rising interest rates will push up selling prices, reduce liquidity, and cause the market to slow down. Very few buyers can purchase homes without bank financing; the vast majority still depend on loans. In just the past 1.5 months, preferential interest rates for first-time homebuyers offered by our company have increased by 2%. Without appropriate solutions, mortgage interest rates could reach as high as 10% by February–March 2026,” Mr. Hiệp said.

According to Mr. Hiệp, if the State does not implement appropriate credit management policies, risks to the real estate market will be substantial. While product supply is expected to increase sharply, purchasing power may decline due to insufficient cash flow. Most buyers need bank loans, but high interest rate levels will limit access to capital. This represents the greatest risk to the real estate market in 2026.

Mr. Hiệp emphasized: “How the 2026 real estate market unfolds will depend on the State’s macroeconomic management policies, especially credit policies. Regarding land policy, if provincial People’s Councils are directed to issue land price adjustment coefficients (K coefficients) in a more reasonable manner, this will help curb excessive land price increases. In addition, if credit policies are managed in a balanced way, the real estate market will be able to develop sustainably.”

Sharing the same view on growth prospects in 2026, Đinh Minh Tuấn stated that the real estate market is forecast to enter a phase of more stable and selective growth. This is not an overheated cycle, but rather a period in which capital flows return cautiously, prioritizing capital safety, operational efficiency, and long-term sustainability.

Segments with strong potential in 2026 will mainly be products serving real demand and capable of generating cash flows. Apartments in major cities and satellite areas with good infrastructure connectivity will continue to play a leading role in market liquidity. In addition, low-rise housing in well-planned urban areas with complete legal documentation will attract long-term asset accumulation buyers.

For investment-oriented segments, the market will prioritize products with real operational potential rather than speculative price appreciation. This indicates that 2026 will be a playing field for investors with long-term vision, financial discipline, and product selection based on actual usage value.

Based on expert forecasts, 2026 will not be a year of “explosive” real estate growth characterized by overheated price surges as seen in previous cycles. Instead, it will be a phase of stable, selective, and sustainable growth. With strong policy support and abundant supply, the market promises many opportunities for end-users, while investors need to remain cautious of interest rate risks and oversupply in the high-end segment to avoid falling into short-term speculation traps.