📉 1. Interbank interest rates surged before and immediately after the Lunar New Year

In early February 2026, the interbank market witnessed a sharp spike in interest rates, with the average rate at times reaching around 17% per annum, and in some cases even recorded at 21% per annum – the highest levels seen in recent years.

➡️ The primary driver was seasonal liquidity pressure ahead of the Lunar New Year:
Cash withdrawal demand from households and businesses increased sharply;
Tax obligations and year-end expenses forced capital to flow out of the system;
Deposits had not yet fully returned to the banking system after the holiday.

These factors tightened short-term VND liquidity, pushing overnight and one-week rates up abruptly.

 

📉 2. After the Lunar New Year – liquidity gradually improved

đź“Ś Despite the tense start, interbank interest rates subsequently cooled down as the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) injected net liquidity through open market operations and provided additional funding to the system. According to the latest updates:

The average overnight and one-week interbank rates have declined to around 5–7% per annum, close to normal levels.

➡️ This indicates that the spike in interest rates was largely seasonal, associated with the pre-holiday period and the recent large capital withdrawals, rather than reflecting a sustained market trend.

 

3. Short-term and medium-term outlook

🔹 In the short term (several weeks to a few months after the Lunar New Year):
Interbank interest rates may continue to fluctuate slightly above historical averages if cash flows have not fully returned to the system.
However, the SBV’s policy mechanism – net liquidity injections – has helped prevent rates from remaining at the extraordinary levels seen in early February.

🔹 In the medium term (Q1–Q2 2026):
Analysts expect interbank interest rates to gradually stabilize, returning to around 5–7% per annum if capital flows normalize and VND demand does not remain as tight as in the pre-holiday period.
Seasonal liquidity pressures are likely to ease as capital rebalances and monetary policy tools take effect.