The real estate market in the first quarter of 2026 recorded a clear shift as the residential segment slowed down under interest rate pressure, while the southern industrial real estate sector entered a phase of strategic growth, with capital flows prioritizing products with real value and transparent legal status.

According to the Q1 report and Q2/2026 forecast by Dat Xanh Services (DXS-FERI), the real estate market has entered an adjustment phase following the recovery cycle of 2025. New supply in Q1 was estimated at approximately 13,600 units, a sharp increase compared to the same period last year but a significant decline from Q4/2025, indicating that growth momentum is slowing in line with the cycle.

Market liquidity also showed signs of weakening, with total absorption reaching around 14,600 units, equivalent to an absorption rate of 15–20%. Although higher than the same period last year, this figure decreased notably compared to the previous quarter, reflecting cautious buyer sentiment amid rising capital costs.

Interest rate pressure creates a market “filter”

According to DXS-FERI’s analysis, the primary reason for the slowdown in the residential market is that mortgage interest rates remain high, commonly ranging from 12–14% per annum, and in some cases reaching 15–16% for floating-rate loans. This forces buyers—especially those using financial leverage—to carefully consider before making purchase decisions.

In addition, the implementation of new policies such as the land price framework under the 2024 Land Law and the application of real estate identification codes is contributing to the formation of a natural “filter” in the market. Projects lacking transparency or driven by short-term speculation are gradually being eliminated, while capital flows are shifting toward products with clear legal status and practical usability.

Changing buyer behavior and deep market segmentation

The convergence of various reports indicates that the profile of real estate buyers in 2026 is changing significantly. Instead of making quick decisions driven by herd mentality, buyers are now more inclined to conduct thorough research, compare multiple projects, and prioritize properties with real use value and complete legal documentation.

Experts predict that in Q2/2026, the market is unlikely to experience a deep downturn but will continue to operate in a more selective manner. New supply is expected to reach approximately 22,000 units, bringing total primary supply close to 100,000 units. Capital flows will continue to diverge, with apartments in major cities maintaining attractiveness due to genuine housing demand, while land plots in remote areas may continue to stagnate.